The 2012 Hilton Supercontest: What to Expect
Now that the 2012-13 NFL Season is quickly approaching, its time to start getting fired up and get the juices flowing for the important things. What are the important things you ask? It’s a no brainer: Betting, pointspreads, odds, teasers and over/unders for the NFL as it pertains to the NFL Super Contest in Vegas! You thought I was talking about the actual teams and the games themselves, right? You were thinking Super Bowl, Wildcard weekend, Opening Night, Partiots vs. Jets, Steelers vs. Broncos weren’t you? Well, why those are all very important and obviously exciting things for all football fans across the globe, for us gamblers and cappers alike it just isn’t quite enough. Weekends during football season involve not only watching our favorite teams compete and the ups and downs they have but more importantly how much they won or lost by. Did they cover? Was the over reached in the final minutes of the game to win the bet? Its all about the point spread action and of course money is the point of emphasis. I always contend that the true experts of pro football are the point spread analysts and bookmakers who do it for a living. A real handicapper of NFL games knows the ins and outs of the teams, coaches, styles, field conditions, tendencies and yes, the kickers.
When the initial season point spreads and team win numbers get released sometime during the early Spring season, the NFL gamblers seem to come out of hibernation from the Super Bowl high to start their engines once again. For many small time guys and pool bettors, its purely the fun of placing a few bucks on the contests and at least having some money in the game. For the ultra competitive of the football cappers, winning $50 a week on the games is a bore. These guys need way more on the line when the ball is kicked off on Sundays. For these cats, the Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest provides the high roller gamblers the action that only a few can really afford to take part in. Its seems so simple to pick the correct side of a point spread and yes, on a single week maybe one can get a good steak of luck and make it look easy. However, trying to make correct picks against the Vegas lines week after week is what keeps building the new Vegas Hotels and paying for the caviar. The best of the best in the sports handicapping world including the well known Fezzik claim that a correct pick % of 58-60% will put you in good position to contend for the title. Even guys like Bill Simmons and Chad Millman from ESPN who have every gambling resource available have trouble eclipsing 50% correct. The $10,000 entry fee keeps the riff raff away and even that being said, the gurus who study the numbers 24 hours a day struggle mightily.
The 2012-13 Hilton Super Contest will be no different and we can expect the unexpected as the NFL is never quite as we think it is from the previous year. We know that 5-8 teams that last year were horrid will be contenders for playoff spots in the end. This disparity in the NFL from team to team is what makes picking games so difficult early on. By the time we figure out which teams are contenders and which are pretenders, the Vegas linesmakers have it figured out as well and adjust the odds accordingly. The key to winning the Supercontest is to have a solid idea of which teams in weeks 1-4 will be vastly improved from 2011 and factor that in heavily into their picks. After the early weeks, the Vegas books will be very tough to beat so early strategy is imperative. We are really looking forward to this year’s version.